As the departures continue, the Lebanese prepare for the worst.
The Australian ambassador to Lebanon Lyndall Sachs has said she thinks the evacuation, or in the language she prefers, voluntary departure, is going "very well". She estimates the number of people who have already left at around nine hundred. She says she expects the process to continue for at leas a few more days but possibly longer "depending on demand". While the number of people eligible to be moved to Cyprus is placed somewhere between five and ten thousand she makes it clear that this was always guess work, and considering that the majority of these are Lebanese Australian with family in the country, it is very unclear how many of them will take the offer of evacuation and how many will choose to stay with their relatives and wait out the storm.
There are no plans at present to close the embassy or evacuate its staff, and the ambassador had been informed by the department of foreign affairs and trade that she could expect a "long and fruitful career" in Beirut.
There are however many in the press and elsewhere who predict that once the bulk of foreigners leave and the bulk of the international press who have been largely focusing on the departures themselves follow, we will for the first time experience the full force of Israel's attack.
It might seem strange to say that the Israeli's have been 'gentle' with Lebanon so far, considering the hundreds of civilian dead and the sorry state of the roads, the power system and the air and sea blockade currently strangling the economy. But compared to the bombing which accompanied the Israeli occupation in 1982, we have seen nothing yet.
However, hopefully both a large chunk of the international media in the country and a corresponding portion of Israel's increased sensitivity to world opinion will remain as a bulwark against a major increase in aggression. This is not guaranteed however as Israel's stated goals, the release of their two captive soldiers and an end to Hezbollah's ability to menace Israel from the south are no where insight.
Indeed it is unclear how either of these goals can be realized. The rhetoric of their leader Hassan Nasrallah regarding both rocket strikes on Israel and the release of the captives has only hardened as the crisis deepens. Last night in an exclusive al-Jazeera interview he stated that even "if the whole universe comes against [them]" they will not release the captured soldiers under any terms that do not include a prisoner exchange.
Indeed, the original raid in which the soldiers were captured was named "Operation True Promise", in reference to a promise made by the general secretary of Hezbollah, Hasan Nasrallah, to the family of Samir al-Qantar, a Lebanese prisoner who has been in an Israeli jail over for the deaths of three Israelis since 1979. Apparently, Nasrallah gave his word that the next time Hezbollah celebrated the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, Qantar would be there to celebrate, and issued orders for his men to seek an opportunity to abduct Israeli soldiers as early as six months ago.
Regarding their presence on the border, equally little movement seems imminent. Hezbollah are not a force that can be wiped out with air raids shelling and rocket attacks, their roots are deep within population. They, and their weapons cashes, are distributed throughout Lebanon in private houses and businesses as well as caves and mountain strongholds. The while the IDF is spouting claims involving made up figures such as a thirty percent destruction of Hezbollah's infrastructure the list of Hezbollah's military achievements in this brief war, including successful rocket attacks on Israeli naval vessels, tanks and civilian targets inside Israel, continues to grow.
Furthermore, considering the fact that Hezbollah came into existence during, and as a response to the Israeli occupation of the south, it does not seem that even if the Israelis do reinvade the south in earnest they will be able to achieve this goal. Rather they will be engaged once more in a war against a guerilla movement which is interwoven with and indistinguishable from the population a large.
Perhaps the only way for Israel to achieve its goal is to turn the other elements of the Lebanese population against Hezbollah - to initiate a new civil war in this country. It is very possible that this is a consciously conceived strategy of the Israelis. Pamphlets have been circulating in Beirut which depict Nasrallah's head on the body of a snake and can be translated as "the resistance defends the country, but the country will pay for the resistance". It is unclear whether these were airdropped along with the pamphlets politely asking residents of areas about to be targeted to leave their homes so they can be bombed, or whether they are produced locally. What is certain however is that they were not circulating before this war began.
There are no plans at present to close the embassy or evacuate its staff, and the ambassador had been informed by the department of foreign affairs and trade that she could expect a "long and fruitful career" in Beirut.
There are however many in the press and elsewhere who predict that once the bulk of foreigners leave and the bulk of the international press who have been largely focusing on the departures themselves follow, we will for the first time experience the full force of Israel's attack.
It might seem strange to say that the Israeli's have been 'gentle' with Lebanon so far, considering the hundreds of civilian dead and the sorry state of the roads, the power system and the air and sea blockade currently strangling the economy. But compared to the bombing which accompanied the Israeli occupation in 1982, we have seen nothing yet.
However, hopefully both a large chunk of the international media in the country and a corresponding portion of Israel's increased sensitivity to world opinion will remain as a bulwark against a major increase in aggression. This is not guaranteed however as Israel's stated goals, the release of their two captive soldiers and an end to Hezbollah's ability to menace Israel from the south are no where insight.
Indeed it is unclear how either of these goals can be realized. The rhetoric of their leader Hassan Nasrallah regarding both rocket strikes on Israel and the release of the captives has only hardened as the crisis deepens. Last night in an exclusive al-Jazeera interview he stated that even "if the whole universe comes against [them]" they will not release the captured soldiers under any terms that do not include a prisoner exchange.
Indeed, the original raid in which the soldiers were captured was named "Operation True Promise", in reference to a promise made by the general secretary of Hezbollah, Hasan Nasrallah, to the family of Samir al-Qantar, a Lebanese prisoner who has been in an Israeli jail over for the deaths of three Israelis since 1979. Apparently, Nasrallah gave his word that the next time Hezbollah celebrated the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, Qantar would be there to celebrate, and issued orders for his men to seek an opportunity to abduct Israeli soldiers as early as six months ago.
Regarding their presence on the border, equally little movement seems imminent. Hezbollah are not a force that can be wiped out with air raids shelling and rocket attacks, their roots are deep within population. They, and their weapons cashes, are distributed throughout Lebanon in private houses and businesses as well as caves and mountain strongholds. The while the IDF is spouting claims involving made up figures such as a thirty percent destruction of Hezbollah's infrastructure the list of Hezbollah's military achievements in this brief war, including successful rocket attacks on Israeli naval vessels, tanks and civilian targets inside Israel, continues to grow.
Furthermore, considering the fact that Hezbollah came into existence during, and as a response to the Israeli occupation of the south, it does not seem that even if the Israelis do reinvade the south in earnest they will be able to achieve this goal. Rather they will be engaged once more in a war against a guerilla movement which is interwoven with and indistinguishable from the population a large.
Perhaps the only way for Israel to achieve its goal is to turn the other elements of the Lebanese population against Hezbollah - to initiate a new civil war in this country. It is very possible that this is a consciously conceived strategy of the Israelis. Pamphlets have been circulating in Beirut which depict Nasrallah's head on the body of a snake and can be translated as "the resistance defends the country, but the country will pay for the resistance". It is unclear whether these were airdropped along with the pamphlets politely asking residents of areas about to be targeted to leave their homes so they can be bombed, or whether they are produced locally. What is certain however is that they were not circulating before this war began.
posted by Austin Gerassimos Mackell at 6:59 PM
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